(CN) — Moldova’s turn away from Russia and toward the West got a big boost on Sunday with the reelection of President Maia Sandu, a pro-Western and Harvard-educated center-right liberal.
Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the tug-of-war between the West and Moscow over control of Moldova has intensified and even prompted fears it may slide into armed conflict. The country of 3.6 million people is sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, an EU member with deep historical and cultural ties to Moldova.
Sandu’s victory came down to strong support from about 270,000 Moldovans living in the European Union, the United States and other Western countries. This segment also propelled Sandu to her first presidential win in 2020.
These voters are part of what is known as a “Moldovan diaspora” that fled poverty at home in the 1990s. They are generally more pro-Western and enjoy visa-free privileges in the EU, a status that may be in jeopardy should a pro-Russian government take power in Chişinău, Moldova’s capital.
After Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU and NATO stepped up actions to make Moldova a member of both Western institutions, but the country’s path toward the West remains very uncertain and rocky.
That Westward direction is made difficult by a Russian-speaking minority in Moldova, which became a province of the Russian Empire in 1812, and because Russian troops have occupied the pro-Russian eastern slice of the country, a territory known as Transnistria, since 1991.
Moldova’s divided politics were borne out in Sunday’s elections.
Among voters living in Moldova, Sandu’s challenger, former prosecutor Alexandre Stoianoglo, narrowly beat her by getting nearly 694,000 votes — some 35,000 more than Sandu. Stoianoglo, who was supported by the Party of Socialists, promised to work with both the West and Russia.
But with the votes of Moldovans outside the country, Sandu picked up about 55% of the electorate, giving her a convincing win ahead of parliamentary elections next year. Her center-right and pro-business Party of Action and Solidarity holds a majority in the parliament.
“There is a high degree of polarization in the Moldovan society,” said Ion Marandici, a political scientist who studies Moldova, in an email. “This is so because the political elite is divided on certain issues such as identity, language, and foreign policy. This is, to some extent, normal for any democratic system.”
In Moldova, he said historical factors play a part with ethnic minorities and Russian-speaking voters tending to vote for left-wing though socially conservative parties that express “nostalgic discourses about the past” and Romanian speakers and the diaspora in the West voting “mostly for right-wing parties” with more socially liberal views.
“One thing to keep in mind though is that Left and Right in the Moldovan context are different from the ones used in the West,” Marandici added, “in the sense that the Moldovan Left is way more conservative than the right-wing parties in Moldova.”
Sandu’s win vindicates her move to enshrine EU membership as a national goal into the constitution. During a first round of the presidential elections two weeks ago, Moldovans narrowly backed her constitutional proposal on EU membership. The tepid support was seen as a setback for Sandu.
In her second term, Sandu may focus on deepening ties with the EU, tackling judicial reforms and shaking up her government, Marandici said.
Her political calculations likely will be influenced by upcoming parliamentary elections in which her party is expected to lose its supermajority, forcing it into a coalition.
These elections were marred by allegations of vote rigging by both sides.
Sandu accused pro-Russian forces of running a large-scale vote-buying scheme and unlawfully transporting Moldovans to polls in Moscow, Belarus and Turkey.
In recent weeks, Moldovan police alleged more than 300,000 people were targeted in the vote-buying scheme, which they said was linked to Ilan Shor, a fugitive Israeli-born Moldovan oligarch living in Russia. Police have conducted raids, made arrests and fined about 350 people for selling their votes.
Sandu’s opponents, meanwhile, accused Moldovan authorities of preventing votes from being cast by Moldovans living in Russia and Belarus and by residents in Transnistria. For instance, only two polling stations were opened in Russia.
Marandici said there is no accurate data about the precise number of Moldovans living in Russia. Estimates range between 150,000 and 400,000. Regardless of the complaints by Stoianoglo and his supporters, Marandici said the vote count from Russia could not have altered the outcome “given the wide margin by which Sandu won.”
Turnout on Sunday was at 54% with 1.7 million Moldovans casting ballots.
On Monday, international observers with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said the elections were “generally calm and well-organized.” The observers also noted the vote-buying allegations reverberated over the campaign and that Sandu gained an unfair advantage by receiving mostly positive media coverage while her opponent faced media criticism and scrutiny.
During the short campaign, Sandu’s side portrayed Stoianoglo as a Kremlin puppet who would hand over the country to “thieves” and “oligarchs” in cahoots with Moscow. Running with the slogan “We Save Moldova,” she warned a Stoianoglo win would lead to the EU cutting aid to Moldova and requiring Moldovans to obtain visas before traveling to the EU.
For his part, Stoianoglo accused Sandu of doing little to fight the country’s deep-seated corruption, shutting down opposition media and not upholding human rights.
“Have human rights improved? No, all rankings show the opposite. Progress in fighting corruption? Not at all — the situation is poor. Freedom of the press? Not at all — television stations are being shut down one after another,” Stoianoglo said in one interview.
Sandu’s win was a relief for Brussels and Washington, particularly after elections in Georgia a week ago saw the pro-Russian ruling party hold into power. Georgia too is contested territory in the conflict between Moscow and the West.
European leaders heaped praise on Sandu.
“Congratulations, dear Maia Sandu, on your victory tonight,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on social media. “It takes a rare kind of strength to overcome the challenges you’ve faced in this election. I’m glad to continue working with you towards a European future for Moldova and its people.”
French President Emmanuel Macron hailed Sandu’s win by saying “democracy has triumphed over all interference and maneuvers.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Sandu had “set her country on a European course.”
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.