(CN) — In a dawn raid, Turkish police on Wednesday arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the chief challenger to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 22-year rule, sparking a major crisis for Turkey’s fragile democracy.
İmamoğlu and 105 politicians, business people, municipal officials and journalists were rounded up Wednesday morning in what the city’s chief prosecutor, an ally of Erdoğan’s, described as a corruption investigation. İmamoğlu also faced charges of aiding the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, an armed Kurdish militant group better known by its initials PKK.
But the accusations against İmamoğlu were widely dismissed as bogus and the arrest was regarded as one of Erdoğan’s most serious attacks yet on Turkey’s democracy.
İmamoğlu’s arrest led to protests in Istanbul and other Turkish cities. A four-day ban on public protests and meetings was imposed in Istanbul and internet access was restricted.
Özgür Özel, the head of İmamoğlu’s center-left Republican People’s Party, denounced the arrest as “a coup.”
“There is currently a force in place to prevent the nation from determining the next president,” he said on social media. “We are faced with a coup attempt against our next president.”
The justice minister, Yılmaz Tunç, dismissed accusations that the arrests were politically motivated.
“The rule of law is essential,” he said in a statement. “It is utterly dangerous and wrong to mischaracterize the investigations conducted by the independent and impartial judiciary or describe them using expressions such as coup d’état.”
But Wednesday’s arrest was widely viewed as a brazen attempt to eliminate Erdoğan’s primary rival.
Anil Aba, a columnist and economist at Yasar University in Izmir, said details about the allegations against İmamoğlu have not been made public. “However, the majority of the public does not believe there is any credible evidence linking İmamoğlu to corruption or terrorism,” he said in an email to Courthouse News.
He said prosecutors are trying to link the terrorism charges against İmamoğlu to the hiring of municipal workers who may have been PKK sympathizers.
“Today’s move against İmamoğlu represents a turning point in Turkey,” said Lisel Hintz, an expert on Turkey at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, in an email.
Before Wednesday’s arrest, she said at least political competition was allowed under Erdoğan’s increasingly authoritarian rule. But İmamoğlu’s detention showed even the “competition element” was being stamped out by Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party, or AKP.
“The electoral playing field has increasingly been tilted in the ruling AKP’s favor in terms of media coverage, judicial ruling, and other factors, but this takes the main competitor off that field,” she said.
İmamoğlu was expected to be anointed the presidential candidate for the Republic People’s Party, the main opposition, in a vote on Sunday. Polls consistently show İmamoğlu beating Erdoğan in an election.
İmamoğlu was a businessman and real estate developer prior to defeating an Erdoğan ally in Istanbul’s municipal elections in 2019. His victory was seen as a major blow to Erdoğan and exposed cracks in the AKP political machine.
In a message on Wednesday, İmamoğlu said he was “resolute” and “entrusting myself not only to the 16 million residents of Istanbul but to the 86 million citizens of Turkey, and all who uphold democracy and justice worldwide.”
Also arrested was his chief spokesperson, Murat Ongun, the head of the İmamoğlu construction firm, Tuncay Yılmaz, and the head of the Istanbul municipality sports club, Fatih Keleş. They were accused of corruption, embezzlement and bribery.
Erdoğan’s popularity has slipped in recent years due to deep economic turmoil and disillusionment with his leadership. Still, Erdoğan secured another election win in 2023 and doesn’t face reelection until 2028, though he may decide to call early elections.
İmamoğlu’s arrest was the culmination of multiple court cases waged against him in recent years. He previously was accused of corruption, maintaining ties to the PKK and insulting government officials.
His presidential aspiration was struck with a novel threat on Tuesday, the day before his arrest, when Istanbul University said it had annulled his diploma. Presidential candidates in Turkey are required to possess a university diploma and he was effectively barred from running.
The government-appointed rector at Istanbul University said his diploma was not valid because he transferred in 1990 from Girne American University in the Turkish-held part of Cyprus but that the Cypriot university allegedly was not recognized at that time by Turkey’s Supreme Board of Education.
Aba said the annulment of İmamoğlu’s diploma was baseless and that a faculty dean resigned “because he refused to sign documents canceling Imamoğlu’s diploma.” He said İmamoğlu was among numerous students who had made similar transfers.
To justify their case against İmamoğlu, Aba said the diplomas of 27 other transfer students from 1990 were canceled, including one held by a current chemistry professor.
Hintz said Erdoğan, in fact, faces more serious questions about his university credentials.
“The irony is that the more believable suspicions are about Erdoğan’s allegedly falsified university credentials,” she said.
Critics say Erdoğan has not produced proof he earned a diploma.
The case against İmamoğlu comes amid a wider crackdown on opposition figures. Hundreds of dawn raids in recent months have led to the arrests of politicians with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality Democracy Party as well as journalists, academics and activists.
In a deeply troubling move, Turkish authorities have removed more than 150 pro-Kurdish mayors affiliated with opposition parties from their posts in southeastern cities and replaced them with government trustees. Following İmamoğlu’s arrest, the government may appoint a trustee over Istanbul. Erdoğan rose to prominence as the mayor of Istanbul and its loss to the opposition was a bitter moment for him.
Begum Zorlu, an expert on Turkish politics at City, University of London said the campaign to eliminate İmamoğlu suggests Erdoğan and his allies are feeling threatened.
“The ruling coalition lacks confidence in its ability to maintain electoral victory, resorting to increasingly repressive measures,” she said in an email. She said such drastic repression “could very well backfire.”
Hintz also saw the crackdown on protests, opposition voices and the internet as a sign the government feels it is losing control.
“All this actually shows the weakness of Erdoğan and his ruling AKP,” she said. “The elimination of political competition and public dissent shows just how insecure they are.”
Aba said he was uncertain though whether the government would face waves of public anger. “Many believe this could trigger large-scale demonstrations, but I am not so sure.”
He said the Republican People’s Party has been reluctant to “call its supporters to the streets” and that “without such an invitation, the public is likely to remain passive and hesitant.”
Aba added he did not expect Turkey to face much international condemnation “given the current state of world affairs” and the rise of authoritarian leaders across the globe.
“Global politics has already turned into a circus. The trend toward polarization and authoritarianism continues to grow,” he said. “I don’t expect any meaningful reaction from the international community.”
But he said the future of Turkey’s democracy was at stake after Wednesday’s arrest.
“This could be the last exit before the bridge,” he said. “If this attack succeeds, if İmamoğlu is removed from office and prevented from running against Erdoğan, then we may no longer be able to speak of democratic elections in Turkey.”
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.