(CN) — Nicuşor Dan, the mayor of Bucharest and a pro-European Union centrist, defeated a far-right nationalist in a highly consequential rerun presidential race in Romania on Sunday, bringing relief to policymakers in Brussels.
But Sunday results from the first round of a presidential race in Poland and a parliamentary election in Portugal were less reassuring for Brussels as far-right, anti-EU forces made gains in both countries.
In Poland, a hard-right nationalist, Karol Nawrocki, did better than expected and will challenge Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in a runoff. Trzaskowski, a centrist affiliated with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s center-right Civic Platform, won 31.4% of the vote and Nawrocki 29.5%.
The result sets up a tense rematch between Civic Platform and the ultranationalist right-wing Law and Justice party, which backs Nawrocki. Tusk needs a Trzaskowski win to enable him to undo a number of controversial laws and policies passed by Law and Justice during its previous eight-year reign and push forward with his own program. Since winning elections in 2023, Tusk’s pro-EU agenda has been blocked by the veto power of President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice. A runoff is scheduled for June 1.
In Portugal, meanwhile, the incumbent center-right Democratic Alliance came in first with about 29% of the vote, but the far-right Chega party was neck-and-neck for second place with the Socialist Party, each at about 23%. It was another breakthrough for Chega, which had only one seat in parliament in 2019 before taking 50 in elections last year. Sunday’s result gives it 58 seats.
Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, the Democratic Alliance leader, is expected to lead the next government and work with the Socialist Party to pass legislation. This was the left bloc’s worst result since 1975 when Portugal’s dictatorship fell.
The election in Romania, though, was the most important development from Sunday.
Dan’s win over George Simion staved off an anti-NATO, EU-skeptic leader from seizing power in Romania, a key NATO state bordering Ukraine. Dan, an independent, took in 53.6% of the vote, about 830,000 more than Simion.
This rerun election gained international attention after Romania’s constitutional court annulled a first election due to claims that a Russia-backed social media campaign put far-right Călin Georgescu on the path to victory. Georgescu was later banned from the election after he was charged with incitement to undermine the constitutional order, spreading false information and founding a racist and fascist organization.
Simion stepped in to fill the vacuum left by Georgescu and he appeared to be on track to win the presidency after winning the first round with about 40% of the vote. But a massive mobilization drive among women, younger people and liberal urban voters buoyed Dan to victory. Turnout was very high at 64.7%.
“It’s a huge surprise for everybody,” said Sorina Cristina Soare, an expert on Romanian and European politics at the University of Florence in Italy, speaking by telephone.
“There was a lot of grassroots campaigning at different levels,” Soare said. “There was a lot of mobilization of young people, first-time voters but also students.”
She said Romanians voted in such large numbers because the election was seen as hugely important to the country’s future. During the campaign, scores of Romanian intellectuals, celebrities, business leaders and civil society groups spoke out about the danger Simion posed. They warned he would steer Romania away from the EU and NATO and into Russia’s sphere.
“All of these elements created the idea that these elections had a stake, a major stake, for Romanian voters,” she said.
Simion accused Moldovan President Maia Sandu, a pro-EU politician, of interfering in the election by encouraging Romanian voters in Moldova to vote for Dan. He also lashed out at French President Emmanuel Macron for endorsing Dan on the eve of the election.
On Sunday, as the results went against him, Simion initially decried the election result as fraudulent, but he eventually conceded.
Simion, the 38-year-old founder of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians, also appears to have put off many Romanians by his aggressive demeanor, for instance toward journalists during public debates.
“It was the behavior that we are not accustomed to seeing in a democratic system,” she said.
Dan, 55, by contrast is a soft-spoken, centrist liberal, pro-Western politician who was a mathematician prodigy and civic activist before he entered politics. He has served as Bucharest mayor since 2020.
Despite Dan’s win, Romania faces a fragmented parliament and polarized society where support for Simion and other hard-right populist forces is strong.
“Looking ahead, the rising support for anti-establishment parties and politicians leaves pertinent questions about Romania’s future political, economic and geopolitical direction,” said Andrius Tursa, an analyst for Teneo, a political risk firm, in a briefing note.
Tursa said Dan will seek to form a reform-oriented, pro-Western government that will back Ukraine.
“Regardless of the coalition outcome, Dan’s constitutional authority to nominate the prime minister provides a safeguard against the inclusion of anti-establishment, right-wing figures in the next government,” he added.
Soare said Sunday’s elections show far-right forces in Europe have become the go-to alternative for many voters.
“There is a lot of anxiety in our societies linked to these very turbulent times in terms of the economy, politics and security,” she said. “People are looking for safety networks, and these parties look like the best solution.”
She added that far-right parties are appealing to many voters by preaching “simple solutions to complex problems” and by advocating social welfare spending.
“We can see this increasingly so in the platforms of all the radical-right populist parties across Europe: They have developed very inclusive forms of welfare and social policies,” she said. “There is an issue of insecurity which is dealt with more convincingly by these radical-right parties by, for example, investing in the needs of the families, women, the youth and so on.”
By contrast, mainstream parties are hamstrung by adhering to EU rules limiting government debt.
“The mainstream parties remain somehow entrapped in the need to be responsible,” she said.
Also, right-wing populist parties are doing very well in countries like Poland and Romania because societies in the former communist bloc have become very conservative, she said.
“We are talking about societies that have been secularized under the communist regime and intensively invested in the religious dimension afterwards,” she said. “People are increasingly attracted by traditionalist agendas and these parties are more credible on traditionalist agendas than the mainstream parties.”
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.